Protara Therapeutics Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Protara Therapeutics Inc

TARANASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)1.32

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $2.76Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $163.1M

Enterprise Value $146M

Shares Outstanding 60.6M diluted

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Protara Therapeutics is a high-potential, clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company advancing its lead cell-based therapy, TARA-002, for non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) and lymphatic malformations (LMs). Backed by a robust cash runway of $177.4 million extending into 2028, the company is well-positioned to achieve multiple registrational milestones. TARA-002 has demonstrated a strong 68.2% complete response rate at six months in BCG-unresponsive NMIBC patients and a 100% clinical success rate in pediatric LM patients. With Breakthrough Therapy and Fast Track designations in hand, Protara is on a clear path toward a BLA submission for LMs in 2H 2027 and registrational trial initiations in NMIBC in H2 2026.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets7 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$24.00

Mean target$26.57

High · most bullish analyst$30.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$12.0015%

Clinical trials face unexpected delays in enrollment or safety signals emerge, extending the cash runway requirements beyond 2028 and forcing dilutive equity financing. Regulatory feedback from the FDA requires additional clinical trials or larger sample sizes for the LM BLA, pushing the submission timeline past 2027.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$22.5860%

Protara successfully completes enrollment of the BCG-Unresponsive cohort of the ADVANCED-2 trial in H2 2026 and initiates the ADVANCED-3 trial on schedule. The company delivers positive interim PK data for IV Choline Chloride in H2 2026. The BLA for TARA-002 in LMs is submitted in 2H 2027 as planned. The stock moves toward consensus analyst targets as clinical execution de-risks the pipeline.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$28.0025%

TARA-002 achieves rapid enrollment in the ADVANCED-3 registrational trial for BCG-Naïve NMIBC, capitalizing on the chronic global shortage of standard-of-care BCG. Efficacy remains outstanding, leading to accelerated FDA approval. Simultaneously, the LM program receives priority review and launches successfully in late 2027/early 2028, capturing a significant share of the 20,000 prevalent patients actively seeking treatment, with premium pricing matching or exceeding comparable rare disease therapies.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong clinical efficacy with a 68.2% complete response rate at 6 months in BCG-Unresponsive NMIBC patients.
Breakthrough Therapy and Fast Track designations for TARA-002 in pediatric lymphatic malformations, de-risking the regulatory path to a 2H 2027 BLA submission.
Robust balance sheet with $177.4 million in cash and marketable securities, providing a clear runway into 2028.
Favorable competitive dynamics in NMIBC due to ongoing global shortages of standard-of-care BCG.

Key Investment Risks

High dependence on a single lead asset (TARA-002) across its primary oncology and rare disease indications.
Clinical development and regulatory risks inherent to cell-based therapies and registrational trials.
Potential for future dilutive capital raises if clinical timelines extend beyond the current 2028 cash runway.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to complete enrollment of the ADVANCED-2 BCG-Unresponsive cohort in H2 2026.
A significant drop in the complete response rate or durability of TARA-002 in upcoming clinical readouts.
FDA refusal to accept the BLA submission for TARA-002 in LMs based on the STARBORN-1 trial data.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.