Protagonist Therapeutics Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)1.53 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $139.19Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $9B Shares Outstanding 71.2M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Protagonist Therapeutics (PTGX) is transitioning from a clinical-stage biotech to a commercial-stage powerhouse, driven by its proprietary peptide discovery platform. The company has two late-stage blockbuster candidates: Icotyde (icotrokinra), an oral IL-23 receptor antagonist licensed to Johnson & Johnson that launched in March 2026 for plaque psoriasis, and rusfertide, a first-in-class hepcidin mimetic for polycythemia vera partnered with Takeda, which has an upcoming FDA PDUFA action date in August 2026. Backed by a robust cash runway extending through 2028 and a capital-light royalty model, PTGX offers a highly attractive risk-reward profile with near-term regulatory and commercial catalysts. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$149.00 Mean target$170.38 High · most bullish analyst$225.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $149.0010% The FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or delays the approval of rusfertide, severely impacting near-term stock momentum. Additionally, the commercial launch of Icotyde by J&J faces slower-than-expected market adoption due to competitive pressures in the psoriasis space, and early-stage pipeline readouts for PN-881 show unfavorable safety or efficacy profiles. Base CaseCentral scenario $170.3860% Matches the consensus meanRusfertide receives FDA approval in August 2026, and Takeda begins commercialization. Icotyde continues its steady launch trajectory in plaque psoriasis, generating predictable royalty revenues. The company maintains its strong cash position, and early-stage clinical trials progress as planned without major safety or efficacy setbacks. Bull CaseUpside scenario $225.0030% The FDA approves rusfertide in August 2026, triggering milestone payments and initiating a highly successful commercial launch with Takeda. Simultaneously, J&J's commercialization of Icotyde accelerates rapidly, exceeding $1 billion in annualized sales by late 2026, which drives substantial high-margin royalty streams to Protagonist. Early-stage pipeline assets like PN-881 deliver outstanding Phase 1 results, validating the oral peptide platform across broader indications. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |