Prologis Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Prologis Inc

PLDNYSE

SectorReal Estate

IndustryIndustrial REITs

Beta (adjusted)1.20

Intrinsic Value $119.62median of 1 methodbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $128.18Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $124.6B

Enterprise Value $158.4B

Shares Outstanding 958.3M diluted

Next Earnings Date14 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend16 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Prologis entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: record leasing, improving occupancy, substantial rent growth, raised Core FFO and same-store NOI guidance, and a 5.8 GW data-center power pipeline. These strengths are balanced by execution, financing and dilution risk from the approximately $18.8 billion recommended SEGRO acquisition. Prologis also issued 17.25 million shares through its August offering and overallotment.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$140.00

Mean target$158.31

High · most bullish analyst$170.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$140.0020%

Occupancy or same-store growth falls below guidance, development and data-center projects face delays or weaker returns, or the SEGRO transaction is delayed, fails to realize anticipated benefits, increases financing pressure or produces greater dilution and integration costs than expected.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$158.3155%

Matches the consensus mean

Core FFO, occupancy and cash same-store NOI remain within management's 2026 ranges. SEGRO closes in the first half of 2027 and initially has the broadly neutral to minimally dilutive per-share impact described by Prologis.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$170.0025%

Record leasing converts into sustained occupancy and rent growth, 2026 results reach the upper ends of guidance, the data-center pipeline advances toward the longer-term 10+ GW opportunity, and SEGRO closes on schedule with successful integration and stronger European growth.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 leasing exceeded 67 million square feet, period-end occupancy rose to 95.5%, and net effective rent change was 36.9%.
Management raised 2026 Core FFO guidance to $6.22-$6.30 per diluted share and cash same-store NOI guidance to 6.75%-7.25%.
The 5.8 GW data-center power pipeline and recommended SEGRO acquisition provide additional digital-infrastructure and European growth options.

Key Investment Risks

The approximately $18.8 billion SEGRO acquisition remains subject to shareholder, court and regulatory conditions, with integration and synergy-realization risk.
The August equity offering and overallotment added 17.25 million shares, while SEGRO shareholders could own approximately 8.9%-11.5% of the combined company depending on cash elections.
Development, data-center, interest-rate and foreign-exchange exposures could pressure returns despite current liquidity and leverage.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.