Progyny Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryHealthcare Plans Beta (adjusted)1.01 Intrinsic Value $45.73median of 6 methods · middle span $35-$237based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $24.85Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 84% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+84%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.9B Enterprise Value $1.8B Shares Outstanding 86.6M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Progyny is a market leader in the underpenetrated fertility and family-building benefits space. Despite a near-term headwind from the loss of a major client in 2025, the company's core organic growth remains robust, supported by a debt-free balance sheet, strong cash flow generation, and aggressive capital return through share buybacks. The expansion into newer solutions like menopause care and the launch of Progyny Select for smaller employers provide long-term growth catalysts. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$27.00 Mean target$33.73 High · most bullish analyst$40.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $27.00 Macroeconomic uncertainty leads to employer benefit budget cuts, slowing new client wins. Heightened competition from generalist carriers and digital health startups pressures pricing and margins, while utilization rates fluctuate, leading to top-line deceleration. Base CaseCentral scenario $33.73 Matches the consensus meanProgyny maintains its market leadership with high customer retention and steady client additions, achieving its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $1.365 billion to $1.405 billion. Operational efficiencies support gross margin expansion, and the completed $200 million share buyback program drives EPS growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $40.00 Secular tailwinds drive rapid adoption of fertility benefits as a key tool for talent retention. Progyny successfully scales its newer solutions (menopause, midlife care) and accelerates penetration into smaller employers via Progyny Select, driving revenue and earnings well above consensus expectations. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |