Progress Software Corp Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure Beta (adjusted)0.87 Intrinsic Value $50.67median of 6 methods · middle span $39-$81based on filings through 31 May 2026 Market Price $36.58Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 39% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.5B Enterprise Value $2.7B Shares Outstanding 42M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Last ex-dividend30 Aug 2024 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Progress Software operates a highly stable, cash-generative business model focused on acquiring mature, mission-critical software assets and optimizing their cost structures. While the company boasts exceptional revenue quality with Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) representing approximately 87% of total trailing twelve months revenue, its organic growth prospects remain minimal (typically low single-digits). The company's growth is heavily dependent on its 'Acquire-Integrate-Deleverage' cycle, as highlighted by the recent $875 million acquisition of ShareFile. While this strategy expands the recurring revenue base, it has elevated balance sheet leverage, prompting management to suspend the dividend to prioritize debt paydown. Consequently, the stock represents a defensive, high-margin value play with limited near-term organic catalysts, making it a Hold as the market monitors integration execution and deleveraging progress. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$45.00 Mean target$53.80 High · most bullish analyst$83.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Integration of ShareFile faces operational hurdles, leading to higher-than-expected churn and a drop in the net retention rate below 98%. Core legacy products (like OpenEdge) experience accelerated decline due to the industry shift toward integrated cloud-native platforms. High leverage limits financial flexibility, and the lack of organic growth catalysts leads to multiple compression. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully integrates ShareFile and Nuclia, achieving its guided full-year 2026 revenue of $988 million to $1 billion (1-2% growth) and non-GAAP operating margins of approximately 39%. Free cash flow generation remains robust at $263-$275 million, allowing the company to pay down $250 million in debt and reduce net leverage to 2.7x by year-end. Valuation multiples remain stable as the market rewards the disciplined execution of the deleveraging playbook. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |