Profound Medical Corp Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryHealth Care Equipment Beta (adjusted)0.69 Intrinsic Value $7.83median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $5.85Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 34% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $213.7M Enterprise Value $167.9M Shares Outstanding 36.6M diluted Next Earnings Date16 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Profound Medical Corp. is at a pivotal commercial inflection point, driven by the clinical validation of its flagship TULSA-PRO platform and expanding insurance coverage. The landmark Level 1 post-market CAPTAIN randomized controlled trial demonstrated TULSA's statistical superiority over robotic radical prostatectomy in preserving erectile function and urinary continence at 6 months (50% vs 24%). With a strong cash position of $50.3 million as of Q1 2026, a narrowing net loss, and newly established full-year 2026 revenue guidance of approximately CAD 25 million (representing 56% YoY growth), Profound is well-positioned to transition from early adopters to mainstream clinical markets. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$10.00 Mean target$11.14 High · most bullish analyst$12.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $10.00 Slower-than-expected hospital adoption and utilization due to capital budget constraints or delays in clinical guideline updates. Recurring revenue growth lags, extending the timeline to profitability beyond 2028 and requiring additional dilutive capital raises despite the recent CA$36 million registered direct offering. Base CaseCentral scenario $11.14 Matches the consensus meanSteady commercial execution with TULSA-PRO installations reaching approximately 120 systems by the end of 2026. Full-year 2026 revenue meets guidance of approximately CAD 25 million with gross margins sustained above 70%. Cash burn continues to decline as recurring procedure-related revenues scale, putting the company on a clear path to breakeven by 2028. Bull CaseUpside scenario $12.00 Accelerated commercial adoption driven by rapid insurance coverage expansion and superior clinical data from the CAPTAIN trial. TULSA-PRO installations exceed the 120-system target by the end of 2026, and utilization rates rise sharply as clinical guidelines officially integrate the TULSA Procedure as a standard of care. The company achieves profitability ahead of the 2028 consensus timeline. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |