Procter & Gamble Co Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryHousehold & Personal Products Beta (adjusted)0.59 Intrinsic Value $146.75median of 6 methods · middle span $140-$161based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $143.95Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 2% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $334.6B Enterprise Value $354B Shares Outstanding 2.4B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend24 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary P&G enters fiscal 2027 with durable brands, improving second-half market-share trends, strong cash conversion and a 70-year dividend-growth record, but its near-term operating trajectory remains subdued. Fiscal 2026 organic sales and core EPS each grew only 1%, fourth-quarter organic sales were flat, and fourth-quarter core EPS declined 3%. Management guides to 1%-3% organic sales growth and 0%-3% core EPS growth for fiscal 2027 while absorbing approximately $1 billion of after-tax raw-material, energy and transportation headwinds. The balance supports a Hold assessment pending evidence that user growth, market-share stabilization and productivity investments produce stronger underlying volume and earnings momentum. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$143.00 Mean target$160.57 High · most bullish analyst$186.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $143.0023% Underlying volume and market-share trends weaken, particularly in categories that ended fiscal 2026 under pressure, while raw-material, energy, transportation and restructuring costs exceed productivity benefits. Organic sales or core EPS then falls below fiscal 2027 guidance and cash conversion drops beneath the guided range. Base CaseCentral scenario $160.5758% Matches the consensus meanOrganic sales and core EPS remain within management's fiscal 2027 guidance ranges as modest pricing and innovation gains are partly offset by cautious consumers, portfolio discontinuations and cost inflation. Cash conversion remains strong but below fiscal 2026's 100% level. Bull CaseUpside scenario $186.0019% Execution of P&G's consumer-first, transformed brand-building, retailer-partnership and innovation initiatives lifts organic sales and core EPS toward the upper ends of the respective 1%-3% fiscal 2027 ranges. Productivity offsets most cost pressure, improving market-share trends persist, and adjusted free cash flow productivity remains within or above guidance. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |