Procore Technologies Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Procore Technologies Inc

PCORNYSE

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySoftware - Application

Beta (adjusted)0.84

Intrinsic Value $110.31median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $51.66Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 114% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+114%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $7.9B

Enterprise Value $7.4B

Shares Outstanding 153.4M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Procore Technologies is the undisputed leader in cloud-based construction management software, operating in a massive, highly under-digitized global market. Despite persistent macroeconomic headwinds in the non-residential and multi-family construction sectors, Procore continues to demonstrate strong fundamental resilience, characterized by double-digit revenue growth, high customer retention, and significant operating leverage. The company's strategic pivot toward profitability is yielding substantial margin expansion, while its aggressive integration of agentic AI (powered by the Datagrid acquisition and NVIDIA Omniverse partnership) positions it to unlock a powerful new monetization engine starting in late 2026. While recent leadership transitions and an EPS miss in Q1 2026 have introduced short-term stock price volatility, the long-term growth trajectory and robust balance sheet support a highly compelling investment case.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets20 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$55.00

Mean target$68.55

High · most bullish analyst$88.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$55.00

Prolonged macroeconomic downturns in the global construction sector lead to increased customer churn, down-selling, and slower pipeline conversion. Intense competition from legacy players or new AI-native entrants erodes Procore's pricing power, while high compute costs associated with AI deployment compress margins, limiting the company's ability to achieve its long-term profitability targets.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$68.55

Matches the consensus mean

Procore steadily compounds revenue at 13% to 15% annually, supported by its core subscription model and steady expansion of high-value customers (>$100k ARR). The company successfully navigates its recent executive transitions and achieves its raised FY2026 non-GAAP operating margin guidance of 18% to 18.5% and free cash flow margin of 19%. AI initiatives show steady, incremental monetization starting in late 2026.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$88.00

Rapid adoption and successful monetization of Procore's agentic AI platform (Helix and Datagrid-powered coworkers) drive significant expansion in average revenue per customer and accelerate top-line growth beyond 15%. International expansion in Europe and Asia-Pacific accelerates, and a faster-than-expected recovery in global construction activity drives robust upmarket deal momentum, pushing non-GAAP operating margins toward the high end of expectations.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Undisputed market leadership in a highly fragmented, under-digitized global construction industry.
Strong customer stickiness and revenue visibility, evidenced by a 95% gross revenue retention rate and 21% cRPO growth.
Significant operating leverage, with non-GAAP operating margins expanding 650 basis points year-over-year to 17% in Q1 2026.
Pioneering agentic AI capabilities embedded directly into workflows, creating a clear path to incremental monetization.

Key Investment Risks

Sensitivity to macroeconomic cycles, interest rates, and overall construction spending.
Execution and integration risks associated with recent major leadership transitions (CEO, CFO, CRO).
Potential margin pressure from rising AI infrastructure and compute expenses.
Valuation multiples remain premium, making the stock sensitive to short-term earnings misses.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Gross revenue retention rate falling below 90%.
Failure to launch or monetize AI products in Q3/Q4 2026 as planned.
Significant deceleration in organic customer growth for accounts contributing >$100,000 ARR.
Inability to achieve guided FY2026 non-GAAP operating margins of 18%.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.