Procept BioRobotics Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Procept BioRobotics Corp

PRCTNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryMedical Devices

Beta (adjusted)0.93

Intrinsic Value $94.92median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $17.02Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 458% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+458%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $974.8M

Enterprise Value $798.6M

Shares Outstanding 57.2M diluted

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

PROCEPT BioRobotics is a high-growth surgical robotics company revolutionizing the treatment of Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia (BPH) with its AI-powered HYDROS and AQUABEAM Robotic Systems delivering Aquablation therapy. Despite near-term commercial realignment disruptions and ongoing net losses, the company's strong procedure growth, expanding gross margins, and clear path to positive Adjusted EBITDA by Q4 2026 support a compelling investment case.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$16.00

Mean target$21.64

High · most bullish analyst$28.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$16.00

Prolonged disruption from the commercial team reorganization, pricing pressures on handpieces, or regulatory delays in expanding indications lead to missed revenue guidance and a delayed path to profitability.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$21.64

Matches the consensus mean

Steady execution of the 2026 strategic plan with full-year revenue reaching the guided range of $390 million to $410 million, gross margins improving to approximately 65%, and the company achieving positive Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2026.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$28.00

Rapid adoption of the newly launched HYDROS system, faster-than-expected commercial stabilization, and positive clinical outcomes from the WATER IV trial in prostate cancer accelerate market expansion and drive positive Adjusted EBITDA ahead of schedule.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong clinical evidence with over 250 peer-reviewed publications supporting Aquablation therapy.
Large, underpenetrated addressable market of approximately 40 million men suffering from BPH in the U.S. alone.
High-margin recurring revenue model driven by handpiece and consumable sales, which represent approximately 95% of procedure volumes.

Key Investment Risks

Near-term disruption and execution risk associated with the recent commercial organization realignment.
Ongoing operating losses and cash burn as the company continues to invest in commercial expansion and clinical trials.
Intense competition in the BPH treatment market from traditional surgical methods and alternative minimally invasive therapies.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A significant decline in quarterly procedure volumes or system placements.
Failure to achieve positive Adjusted EBITDA by Q4 2026.
Negative clinical data or safety concerns arising from the WATER IV trial.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.