Primoris Services Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryEngineering & Construction Beta (adjusted)1.30 Intrinsic Value $40.29median of 6 methods · middle span $25-$43based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $76.25Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 47% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.1B Enterprise Value $4.7B Shares Outstanding 54.6M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Primoris Services Corp is well-positioned to benefit from secular tailwinds in utility-scale solar, power delivery, and data center infrastructure. Despite a challenging Q1 2026 marked by execution issues on a small number of solar projects, the company's underlying fundamentals remain strong. The strategic acquisition of PayneCrest Electric significantly expands Primoris' high-margin electrical capabilities and provides direct exposure to the rapidly growing data center and hyperscaler markets. With a robust total backlog of $11.6 billion and a massive opportunity funnel, the company is poised for a strong recovery in the second half of 2026. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$85.00 Mean target$119.79 High · most bullish analyst$165.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case assumes persistent labor shortages, weather disruptions, and project redesigns that continue to plague the renewables segment, leading to further EBITDA guidance cuts. Integration of PayneCrest faces delays or cost overruns, and subcontractor inflation pressures margins across both segments. Book-to-bill ratio falls below 1.0x as customers delay project starts due to macroeconomic uncertainty. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes successful resolution of the near-term solar project execution issues, with margins recovering in the second half of 2026. PayneCrest Electric is integrated smoothly, contributing $260 million to $280 million in revenue and $28 million to $32 million in adjusted EBITDA for the full year. Utilities segment continues its steady double-digit growth driven by power delivery and gas operations. Under this scenario, Primoris achieves its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.80 to $5.00, and the stock trades toward its consensus target. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |