Primo Brands Corp Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryBeverages - Non-Alcoholic Beta (adjusted)0.82 Intrinsic Value $15.17median of 6 methods · middle span $12-$21based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $19.05Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 20% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $6.9B Enterprise Value $11.7B Shares Outstanding 361.6M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend24 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Primo Brands entered the second half of 2026 with improving operating momentum: second-quarter net sales rose 3.8%, adjusted EBITDA increased 5.0%, adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 20 basis points, and Direct Delivery returned to growth earlier than management anticipated. Management consequently raised comparable-net-sales guidance to 2%-4% while maintaining adjusted EBITDA and adjusted-free-cash-flow ranges. The offset is execution risk: first-half adjusted EBITDA remained below the prior-year period, transportation and inflationary costs remain relevant, and net leverage was 3.42x. A Hold balances the improving demand and cash-flow trajectory against leverage, merger execution. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$25.00 Mean target$30.36 High · most bullish analyst$35.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $25.0023% Retail momentum slows, Direct Delivery's recovery proves temporary, or transportation and other inflationary pressures prevent operating leverage. Results fall below the lower ends of management's sales or adjusted EBITDA ranges, weakening free-cash-flow conversion and slowing deleveraging. Base CaseCentral scenario $30.3657% Matches the consensus meanComparable net sales finish within the 2%-4% outlook, adjusted EBITDA remains within $1,465-$1,515 million, and adjusted free cash flow remains within $790-$810 million. Growth investments and inflation limit near-term margin acceleration, while Direct Delivery and Retail execution improve gradually. Bull CaseUpside scenario $35.0020% Retail momentum in regional spring and premium water remains robust, Direct Delivery sustains positive growth, and improved execution permits results near or above the upper ends of the 2026 sales, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted-free-cash-flow ranges. Faster cash conversion would also improve capacity for deleveraging and shareholder returns. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |