Pricesmart Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Pricesmart Inc

PSMTNASDAQ

SectorConsumer Staples

IndustryDiscount Stores

Beta (adjusted)0.85

Intrinsic Value $119.60median of 6 methods · middle span $107-$137based on filings through 31 May 2026

Market Price $167.64Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 29% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $5.2B

Enterprise Value $5.1B

Shares Outstanding 30.2M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

PriceSmart Inc. (PSMT) represents a highly compelling, defensive growth opportunity in the niche Latin American and Caribbean membership warehouse retail space. Operating 57 clubs across 12 countries and one U.S. territory, the company leverages a proven, high-barrier-to-entry business model modeled after Costco. PriceSmart exhibits robust top-line momentum, solid cash generation, and a clean balance sheet with minimal debt. The recent leadership transition to David Price as CEO ensures strategic continuity, while the board's decision to raise the annual dividend by 11.1% to $1.40 per share reflects strong operational confidence. Trading at a significant discount to U.S. warehouse peers, PriceSmart offers attractive risk-adjusted returns with a clear expansion runway to 61 clubs.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$135.00

Mean target$153.33

High · most bullish analyst$165.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

A strong-dollar regime and persistent macroeconomic headwinds in key markets like Colombia and Costa Rica pressure consumer discretionary spending. Severe foreign exchange transaction costs and local currency devaluations compress margins, while supply chain disruptions delay new club openings, limiting multiple expansion.

Base CaseCentral scenario

PriceSmart continues its steady expansion pipeline, successfully reaching 61 clubs by 2027. Net merchandise sales grow at a high single-digit rate, supported by stable membership renewal rates and moderate local currency performance. Operating margins remain stable around 4.5% to 5.0%, and the company continues its consecutive annual dividend increases.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

A weak-dollar regime combined with accelerated warehouse club expansion drives significant margin expansion and multiple re-rating. Constant-currency sales growth outpaces expectations, and successful entry into secondary cities (such as the newly opened La Romana club) proves highly lucrative, driving the stock toward the high end of analyst targets.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Durable, recurring revenue moat driven by a highly successful membership warehouse model with over 2 million members.
Strong balance sheet with robust cash generation and minimal long-term debt.
Clear expansion runway with a target to grow the club footprint from 57 to 61 locations across Central America and the Caribbean.
Consistent shareholder returns, highlighted by five consecutive years of annual dividend increases, most recently raised 11.1% to $1.40 per share.

Key Investment Risks

Significant exposure to foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations, as revenues are collected in local currencies while operations and sourcing are largely U.S. dollar-financed.
Geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility in emerging markets, particularly in key operating segments like Colombia and Central America.
Execution risks associated with the construction and supply chain logistics of the new club pipeline.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A material decline in membership renewal rates or membership income growth.
Severe local currency devaluations in major markets (e.g., Costa Rica, Colombia) that cannot be offset by local price adjustments.
Persistent delays or cost overruns in the warehouse club expansion pipeline that halt footprint growth.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.