PRA Group Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryConsumer Finance Beta (adjusted)1.07 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $18.86Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $710M Enterprise Value $4.4B Shares Outstanding 38M diluted Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend7 May 2007 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary PRA Group is executing strongly on its 'PRA 3.0' transformation strategy, which focuses on technology modernization, global AI initiatives, and disciplined capital allocation. The company's Q1 2026 results demonstrated robust operational momentum, highlighted by an 11% year-over-year increase in cash collections to $551.9 million and a significant rebound in diluted EPS to $0.73. Despite investor caution regarding top-line visibility and elevated leverage, the company's focus on high-return portfolios, particularly in the U.S. legal collections channel, and its stabilizing leverage profile (net leverage down to 2.71x) position it well for long-term profitability and market share gains. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$26.00 Mean target$26.00 High · most bullish analyst$26.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $12.0020% Persistent inflation and macroeconomic headwinds weaken consumer repayment capacity, leading to a deceleration in cash collections. Increased competition in debt auctions drives up portfolio acquisition costs, compressing yields. Funding costs remain elevated due to higher-for-longer interest rates, keeping net leverage above 3.0x and limiting EPS expansion. Base CaseCentral scenario $21.0050% PRA Group continues to steadily execute its PRA 3.0 strategy, maintaining stable portfolio purchases between $1.0 billion and $1.3 billion annually. Cash collections grow at a high single-digit rate, supported by the U.S. legal channel and European operations. Net leverage gradually trends toward the mid-2x area, and operating margins benefit from ongoing cost-rationalization efforts. Bull CaseUpside scenario $26.0030% Accelerated adoption of digital collection channels and AI-driven recovery tools significantly lowers operating costs, driving the cash efficiency ratio above 65%. Stronger-than-expected supply of nonperforming loans in the U.S. and Europe allows PRA Group to deploy capital at highly favorable purchase price multiples, leading to double-digit ERC growth and rapid deleveraging toward 2.0x. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |