PPL Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

PPL Corp

PPLNYSE

SectorUtilities

IndustryUtilities - Regulated Electric

Beta (adjusted)0.72

Intrinsic Value $36.44median of 5 methods · middle span $26-$39based on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $32.76Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $24.7B

Enterprise Value $43.4B

Shares Outstanding 759.1M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend10 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

PPL offers a visible regulated-utility growth plan, reaffirmed 2026 ongoing EPS guidance and a 6%-8% annual EPS-growth objective through at least 2029. Large-load development creates substantial potential upside, while approved tariffs seek to prevent infrastructure costs from shifting to existing customers. The balanced view reflects execution, regulatory, financing and commercialization risks.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets14 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$36.00

Mean target$41.50

High · most bullish analyst$48.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$36.0020%

Regulatory recovery, project execution, financing conditions or operating costs weaken earnings delivery, while large-load projects and Invitium commercial agreements are delayed or fail to convert. Full-year ongoing EPS falls below guidance or the long-term growth outlook is reduced.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$41.5055%

Matches the consensus mean

PPL delivers 2026 ongoing EPS within the reaffirmed $1.90-$1.98 range and subsequently compounds near the upper portion of its 6%-8% target through 2029. Regulated investment and constructive cost-recovery mechanisms remain the principal drivers, while Invitium contributes little through 2030.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$48.0025%

PPL compounds EPS near or above the high end of its 6%-8% target as regulated investment recovery remains timely, data-center demand converts into enforceable service and energy-supply agreements, and part of the identified $10-$12 billion generation-investment opportunity advances without shifting costs to existing utility customers.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Management reaffirmed 2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $1.90-$1.98 and annual EPS growth of 6%-8% through at least 2029, with compound growth expected near the top of that range.
Current economic-development activity could create $10-$12 billion of generation-investment upside through 2032; Pennsylvania's advanced data-center pipeline reached 31.8 GW, including more than 11 GW under signed electric-service agreements.
Regulator-approved large-load tariffs in Pennsylvania and Kentucky include customer protections, while PPL also targets 4%-6% annual dividend growth through at least 2029.

Key Investment Risks

Invitium is not expected to contribute material earnings through 2030, and construction or material commitments depend on suitable energy-supply or cost-reimbursement agreements.
The investment case remains sensitive to regulatory outcomes, timely cost recovery, capital-market conditions, interest expense, operating costs and generation-project execution.
Large-load development pipelines may not convert into completed projects at their stated scale or timing, reducing the identified generation-investment opportunity.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.