Powell Industries Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Powell Industries Inc

POWLNASDAQ

SectorIndustrials

IndustryElectrical Equipment & Parts

Beta (adjusted)1.14

Intrinsic Value $165.69median of 6 methods · middle span $64-$474based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $190.60Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $6.9B

Shares Outstanding 36.4M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date17 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend19 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Powell enters the final quarter of fiscal 2026 with exceptional commercial momentum: June-quarter new orders reached $934 million, book-to-bill was 3.0x and backlog reached a record $2.4 billion. Execution also remained strong, with a 30.6% gross margin. The counterweight is elevated delivery risk associated with a rapidly expanding backlog, several unusually large projects and ongoing capacity additions; moreover, backlog can be modified or cancelled.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$235.00

Mean target$280.00

High · most bullish analyst$333.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$235.0019%

Large-project timing changes, cancellations or scope reductions weaken backlog conversion while project mix, tariffs, material costs or capacity-ramp inefficiencies compress margins below the fiscal second-quarter benchmark. A delay in the Jacintoport expansion would compound execution pressure.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$280.0056%

Matches the consensus mean

Powell converts its record backlog while quarterly order intake normalizes from the exceptional June quarter. Gross margin moderates but remains at or above the fiscal second-quarter benchmark, and capacity additions support delivery without major cost overruns.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$333.0025%

Record orders convert broadly across data-center, LNG, petrochemical, utility and other industrial work; gross margin remains near management's trailing-twelve-month expectation; and the Jacintoport expansion ramps without material delay. These conditions would extend visibility into fiscal 2027 while demonstrating that recent demand and execution strength are durable.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Backlog reached $2.4 billion at June 30, 2026, rising 69% year over year and 35% sequentially from $1.8 billion.
Quarterly new orders reached $934 million and book-to-bill reached 3.0x, supported by three orders exceeding $50 million across data centers, petrochemicals and LNG.
Gross margin remained robust at 30.6%, and management expected margins to remain consistent with trailing-twelve-month levels.

Key Investment Risks

Reported backlog may not predict future results because customer orders can be cancelled, modified, reduced in scope or recognized later than expected.
The June-quarter order surge included a data-center award exceeding $400 million and two other large awards, increasing the importance of successful execution on a small number of major projects.
Powell is adding leased capacity, completing its Jacintoport expansion and evaluating further greenfield expansion, creating ramp, cost-control and capital-deployment execution risk.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.