Popular Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.74 Intrinsic Value $112.36median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $156.52Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 28% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $10B Enterprise Value $11.1B Shares Outstanding 63.3M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend29 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Popular entered the second half of 2026 with strong earnings momentum, a 17.02% quarterly ROTCE, a 16.08% CET1 ratio and upgraded net-interest-income guidance. Capital returns also strengthened through a board-approved $0.90 quarterly dividend and a new $1.0 billion repurchase authorization. These positives are balanced by an annualized second-quarter net charge-off ratio of 1.05%, above the updated 0.65%-0.80% full-year range, and by management's expectation that loan growth will finish near the low end of its 3%-4% range. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$181.00 Mean target$197.30 High · most bullish analyst$214.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $181.0019% Commercial credit deterioration proves broader than the borrower-specific issues described by management, keeping net charge-offs above 0.80% and reversing the recent decline in the non-performing-loan ratio. Loan growth falls below 3% or expense growth exceeds 3%, weakening operating leverage while credit provisions absorb more of the benefit from higher net-interest income. Base CaseCentral scenario $197.3058% Matches the consensus meanPopular broadly delivers its updated 2026 outlook: net-interest income grows 8%-9%, quarterly non-interest income remains within $165-$170 million, expenses rise 2%-3%, loan growth finishes near 3%, and full-year net charge-offs settle within the 0.65%-0.80% range. Strong capital and the higher dividend support shareholder returns, while elevated quarterly credit volatility limits conviction. Bull CaseUpside scenario $214.0023% Net-interest-income growth reaches the upper end of the updated 8%-9% range, quarterly non-interest income approaches $170 million, expense growth remains near 2%, and credit costs normalize toward the lower end of the 0.65%-0.80% full-year range. Sustained capital generation supports the approved $0.90 quarterly dividend and execution under the $1.0 billion repurchase authorization. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |