Pool Corp Dossier
|
SectorIndustrials IndustryIndustrial Distribution Beta (adjusted)1.03 Intrinsic Value $248.23median of 6 methods · middle span $200-$313based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $160.67Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 55% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+55%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.8B Enterprise Value $7B Shares Outstanding 36.1M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend13 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary POOLCORP's latest reported results support a neutral stance. Second-quarter sales increased 2%, maintenance demand remained steady, and adjusted diluted EPS increased 4%, but gross margin declined 30 basis points and discretionary spending remained muted. Management maintained adjusted 2026 diluted-EPS guidance of $10.87-$11.17. The installed-base maintenance business, distribution network, supplier relationships, and digital capabilities provide resilience, while margin pressure, weak discretionary demand, and execution under a CEO appointed in May 2026 limit near-term conviction. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$185.00 Mean target$220.36 High · most bullish analyst$260.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $185.0020% Muted discretionary spending persists or worsens, sales growth turns nonpositive, and elevated freight costs or unfavorable customer mix push quarterly gross margin below 29.0%. Under this outcome, full-year adjusted diluted EPS falls below the $10.87 guidance floor and the leadership transition adds execution risk. Base CaseCentral scenario $220.3655% Matches the consensus meanMaintenance activity remains steady and building-material demand continues to improve gradually, supporting modest sales growth. Gross margin remains near the Q2 level, and management delivers adjusted diluted EPS within its confirmed $10.87-$11.17 range. The new CEO executes the stated priorities of sales excellence, pricing and supply-chain discipline, operational execution, and disciplined M&A without a material disruption. Bull CaseUpside scenario $260.0025% Maintenance demand remains resilient, discretionary categories recover more quickly, and pricing and supply-chain actions overcome freight and customer-mix pressures. Under this outcome, gross margin stabilizes at or above the Q2 level and full-year adjusted diluted EPS exceeds the $11.17 upper end of management's confirmed range. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |