Plexus Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Plexus Corp

PLXSNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryElectronic Components

Beta (adjusted)0.94

Intrinsic Value $120.60median of 6 methods · middle span $101-$148based on filings through 4 Jul 2026

Market Price $270.27Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 55% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-55%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $7.2B

Enterprise Value $7.1B

Shares Outstanding 27.3M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Plexus Corp. is demonstrating exceptional operational execution, marked by its fifth consecutive quarter of sequential revenue growth and record-breaking manufacturing program wins. The company's strategic focus on high-complexity, highly regulated sectors (Aerospace/Defense, Healthcare/Life Sciences, and Industrial) provides a resilient demand profile that insulates it from broader consumer tech volatility. With management raising Fiscal 2026 revenue growth guidance to mid-teens or greater and targeting operating margins above 6%, Plexus is well-positioned to deliver robust earnings expansion. The recent transition to absolute greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets further enhances its appeal to ESG-conscious institutional capital.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$275.00

Mean target$305.75

High · most bullish analyst$330.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

A global economic slowdown or prolonged supply chain disruptions in semiconductors delay key customer program ramps. Transition friction during the CFO succession or margin compression from rising labor costs limits operating margins to under 5.5%, dragging EPS down toward $5.87.

Base CaseCentral scenario

Plexus successfully executes on its record $4.0 billion opportunity funnel, driven by strong program ramps in Aerospace/Defense and MedTech. Operating margins stabilize at or above 6.0% due to fixed-cost leverage and efficiency programs, leading to Fiscal 2026 EPS of approximately $7.95 and Fiscal 2027 EPS of $9.03.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong secular tailwinds in Aerospace/Defense and Healthcare/Life Sciences providing highly visible, long-term revenue streams.
Record $355 million in annualized new manufacturing program wins in Q2 Fiscal 2026, expanding the qualified funnel to $4.0 billion.
Engineering-led business model with deep regulatory expertise, creating high switching costs and strong customer stickiness.
Robust balance sheet supported by a newly amended, expandable $750 million credit facility maturing in 2031.

Key Investment Risks

Potential execution risks and operational disruptions during the transition of the Chief Financial Officer position.
Persistent supply chain constraints in semiconductors and passive components that could delay product deliveries.
Cyclicality and near-term demand softness in the Industrial sector, particularly within non-energy subsectors.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Non-GAAP operating margins falling consistently below 5.5% due to cost inflation or poor fixed-cost absorption.
A significant contraction in the qualified manufacturing opportunity funnel below $3.5 billion.
Loss of one or more key tier-1 customers representing over 10% of total sales.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.