PLDT Inc ADR Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryTelecom Services Beta (adjusted)0.52 Intrinsic Value $9.86median of 6 methods · middle span $0-$31based on filings through 31 Dec 2024 Market Price $17.55Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 44% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.8B Enterprise Value $290.7B Shares Outstanding 216.1M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend25 Mar 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary PLDT Inc. presents a highly compelling defensive investment opportunity in the Philippine telecommunications sector, combining stable utility-like cash flows with high-growth digital optionality. The company has successfully transitioned from a capital-intensive network buildout phase to a margin-optimization and deleveraging cycle, as evidenced by its reduced CapEx guidance for 2026. Furthermore, its 37.7% stake in the Maya digital banking platform has reached a critical profitability milestone, providing a strong catalyst for valuation re-rating. Trading at historically low valuation multiples with an attractive dividend yield of approximately 6.8%, PLDT offers a robust margin of safety and significant upside potential. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$26.42 Mean target$26.42 High · most bullish analyst$26.42 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $26.4215% Intensified price competition from Converge ICT and DITO Telecommunity leads to severe ARPU erosion in both fixed broadband and mobile segments. High interest rates persist, keeping net financing costs elevated and delaying deleveraging targets. Maya's credit portfolio experiences rising non-performing loans (NPLs), dragging down equity-method earnings. Base CaseCentral scenario $26.4260% Matches the consensus meanPLDT successfully maintains its duopoly position alongside Globe Telecom, achieving modest service revenue growth of 1-2% and stable EBITDA margins of 52%. CapEx is disciplined within the PHP 53-57 billion range, allowing the company to sustain positive free cash flow and gradually reduce leverage toward its 2.0x Net Debt-to-EBITDA target. Maya remains profitable, and the dividend yield is sustained at 6.5-7.0%. Bull CaseUpside scenario $26.4225% Accelerated deleveraging driven by strong free cash flow generation and successful monetization of data center assets (VITRO) via a REIT listing. Maya's profitability scales rapidly, contributing over PHP 3 billion annually to core income. Broadband ARPU stabilizes as premium fiber demand recovers, while 5G monetization drives wireless consumer revenue growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |