Planet Labs PBC Dossier - Source-backed chat

Planet Labs PBC

PLNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAerospace & Defense

Beta (adjusted)1.75

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $16.14Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $5.9B

Enterprise Value $5.9B

Shares Outstanding 358.2M diluted

Moat Rating None

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Planet entered the September 3 earnings event with strong operating momentum: Q1 FY2027 revenue increased 42% year over year to $94.2 million, backlog exceeded $906 million, and recurring ACV was 99%. Management raised FY2027 revenue guidance to $425 million-$441 million and retained an adjusted-EBITDA outlook of $0 million-$10 million. However, the issuer-displayed share price of $19.84 on August 31 already reflected substantial expectations, while Q1 free cash flow remained negative and non-GAAP gross margin declined year over year. The balanced conclusion is Hold pending confirmation that backlog converts into revenue without margin or capital-intensity deterioration.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets10 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$25.00

Mean target$40.10

High · most bullish analyst$53.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$25.0018%

Revenue falls below guidance as cancelable government backlog converts more slowly than expected, non-GAAP gross margin drops below the guided range, or satellite and launch spending exceeds plan. Failure to demonstrate durable positive adjusted EBITDA would compress the valuation after the stock's substantial appreciation.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$40.1058%

Matches the consensus mean

Planet delivers within its $425 million-$441 million FY2027 revenue range, maintains non-GAAP gross margin near the guided 52%-54% range, and reaches approximately breakeven adjusted EBITDA while continuing constellation investment.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$53.0024%

Planet exceeds the upper end of FY2027 revenue guidance, converts its expanded government and commercial backlog on schedule, sustains positive adjusted EBITDA, and establishes Pelican, SuperRes, and AI-enabled analytics as incremental growth drivers. Continued sovereign-defense demand and execution on the high-resolution constellation support a material premium to the current price.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q1 FY2027 revenue increased 42% year over year to a record $94.2 million, and management guided Q2 revenue to $102 million-$107 million.
Backlog grew 72% year over year to more than $906 million, while remaining performance obligations increased 81% to $816 million.
Recurring ACV represented 99% of period-end ACV, supporting revenue visibility.
Planet ended Q1 with $730.8 million of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, providing capacity to fund constellation and AI investments.

Key Investment Risks

Q1 non-GAAP gross margin declined to 56% from 59% a year earlier, and FY2027 guidance calls for a lower 52%-54% range.
Q1 adjusted EBITDA was a $1.0 million loss and free cash flow was negative $2.5 million, leaving durable profitability still to be demonstrated.
FY2027 capital-expenditure guidance of $80 million-$95 million creates execution and cash-conversion sensitivity around satellite manufacturing and launches.
Planet states that backlog includes cancelable contract value and unfunded written orders, so the reported amount is not equivalent to non-cancelable revenue.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.