Planet Fitness Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryLeisure Beta (adjusted)1.02 Intrinsic Value $115.60median of 4 methods · middle span $115-$116based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $41.85Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 176% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+176%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.2B Enterprise Value $5.4B Shares Outstanding 75.8M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend18 Nov 2016 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Planet Fitness is currently in a transitional phase characterized by slower-than-expected membership growth and near-term operational headwinds. While the company's asset-light franchise model remains highly profitable and continues to generate robust cash flows, management's decision to pause the planned national Black Card price increase and significantly lower FY2026 guidance has reset near-term growth expectations. Multiple expansion is likely capped until there is clear evidence of member growth reacceleration, making a Hold rating appropriate at current valuation levels. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$47.00 Mean target$67.25 High · most bullish analyst$106.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects persistent challenges in attracting casual gym-goers, elevated churn rates, and intense competition from both premium and boutique fitness concepts. Franchisees delay new club openings due to high construction costs and weaker unit economics, leading to system-wide club growth falling below guidance. Continued promotional discounting to sustain membership levels further compresses margins. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes Planet Fitness successfully stabilizes its member acquisition trends through refined marketing campaigns targeting casual gym-goers. Unit expansion continues at a steady pace of 180 to 190 new clubs annually, supported by contractual commitments. Same-club sales growth remains modest at approximately 1% for FY2026, in line with revised guidance, before gradually recovering in FY2027 as pricing initiatives are carefully reintroduced. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |