Plains GP Holdings LP Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Midstream Beta (adjusted)0.65 Intrinsic Value $82.07median of 5 methods · middle span $50-$214based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $25.93Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 216% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+216%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $6B Enterprise Value $6.1B Shares Outstanding 233M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary The operating outlook is constructive but balanced. Second-quarter Adjusted EBITDA attributable to PAA reached $738 million, crude-oil Adjusted EBITDA increased 19% year over year, and the Canadian NGL divestiture funded substantial debt reduction that brought pro forma leverage to 3.3x. Distribution coverage remained healthy at 1.69x, while PAGP's quarterly distribution was $0.4175 per Class A share. Offsetting these strengths are reduced diversification after the NGL sale, exposure to crude-oil throughput and market conditions, contract-rate resets on certain Permian long-haul pipelines, and a larger organic capital program. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$20.00 Mean target$24.79 High · most bullish analyst$29.00 Street targets sit below today's price; our intrinsic value sits above it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $20.0018% Weaker crude-oil production or transportation demand, adverse contract-rate resets, fewer market-based opportunities, or project-cost pressure push Adjusted EBITDA below guidance, reduce distribution coverage and move leverage above the stated target range. Base CaseCentral scenario $24.7958% Matches the consensus meanResults remain within the 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance range, leverage stays within the 3.25x to 3.75x target range, and the $400 million to $450 million organic growth program supports future crude-oil growth without impairing distribution coverage. Bull CaseUpside scenario $29.0024% Crude-oil volumes and optimization opportunities remain favorable, Cactus III contributions and synergies persist, the planned 75-thousand-barrel-per-day expansion is completed efficiently, and the business delivers at or above the upper end of 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance while maintaining leverage near the low end of its target range. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |