Plains All American Pipeline LP Dossier
|
SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Midstream Beta (adjusted)0.68 Intrinsic Value $101.05median of 5 methods · middle span $36-$125based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $23.70Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 326% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+326%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $16.7B Enterprise Value $24.1B Shares Outstanding 705.6M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Plains entered the second half of 2026 with operating momentum, completed the Canadian NGL divestiture, captured the announced Cactus III synergies and remained on track for its full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance. The resulting crude-oil-focused portfolio offers exposure to Permian throughput growth and additional Cactus III capacity, but it also increases sensitivity to crude-oil production, contract-rate resets and execution of new investments. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$20.00 Mean target$24.82 High · most bullish analyst$27.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $20.0020% A weaker oil environment reduces producer activity and pipeline throughput, competitive or contract-renewal pressure constrains tariffs, or expansion and efficiency initiatives fail to deliver their expected benefits. The more concentrated crude-oil portfolio would amplify these adverse developments. Base CaseCentral scenario $24.8255% Matches the consensus meanPlains delivers near its maintained 2026 guidance, completes its announced efficiency initiatives and benefits from measured Permian volume growth, while commodity volatility and contract-rate resets limit upside. Bull CaseUpside scenario $27.0025% Permian volumes continue growing, the planned 75 thousand-barrel-per-day Cactus III expansion is delivered successfully, and operational efficiencies create upside beyond the benefits already captured from the acquisition. These outcomes would support stronger post-divestiture momentum into 2027. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |