Pinnacle West Capital Corp Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryUtilities - Regulated Electric Beta (adjusted)0.63 Intrinsic Value $88.96median of 6 methods · middle span $68-$134based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $94.63Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 6% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $11.5B Enterprise Value $22B Shares Outstanding 124.3M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend3 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Pinnacle West offers exposure to strong Arizona electricity demand: APS reported 2.1% customer growth, 5.6% weather-normalized sales growth and 9.6% total sales growth for the second quarter of 2026. Those tailwinds are balanced by higher interest expense and depreciation, which contributed to lower year-over-year quarterly earnings. Management maintained weather-normalized 2026 diluted EPS guidance of $4.55-$4.75. With the latest available issuer quote at $97.64 on August 28, 2026, the risk-reward appears balanced rather than decisively favorable. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$87.00 Mean target$106.54 High · most bullish analyst$129.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $87.0019% A slowdown from the reported customer-growth rate, persistent financing and depreciation pressure, or delays in obtaining regulatory approvals for planned capacity could weaken the outlook. The issuer-reported 52-week low is used as a transparent downside reference rather than an externally sourced analyst forecast. Base CaseCentral scenario $106.5458% Matches the consensus meanPinnacle West delivers 2026 EPS within its maintained $4.55-$4.75 guidance while customer growth and electricity demand offset, but do not eliminate, pressure from interest and depreciation. Bull CaseUpside scenario $129.0023% Sustained customer and electricity-demand growth, disciplined cost recovery from extra-large users, and progress toward returning approximately 380 MW at Cholla by 2029 could improve the earnings outlook. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |