PHINIA Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAuto Parts Beta (adjusted)1.06 Intrinsic Value $76.88median of 6 methods · middle span $45-$205based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $60.03Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 28% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.2B Enterprise Value $2.8B Shares Outstanding 37.7M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary PHINIA INC. represents a highly cash-generative value play dominating the long tail of internal combustion engines (ICE) and hybrid propulsion. While the broader automotive sector faces high capital requirements for full electrification, PHINIA's agile focus on high-efficiency fuel systems and a robust aftermarket cash cow allows it to capture market share and return massive capital to shareholders. Since its 2023 spin-off, management has aggressively retired over 20% of outstanding shares, driving significant EPS accretion. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$80.00 Mean target$94.00 High · most bullish analyst$105.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $76.0020% A rapid acceleration in commercial vehicle electrification or severe macroeconomic downturns compress OEM production volumes. Margin pressure from tariff-related dilution and unfavorable product mix limits free cash flow generation, reducing the pace of share repurchases and leading to multiple contraction. Base CaseCentral scenario $94.0050% Matches the consensus meanPHINIA successfully executes its pragmatic strategy of 2% to 4% organic top-line growth, maintaining stable adjusted EBITDA margins of 13.7% to 14.3%. The company continues to generate robust free cash flow of $200M to $240M annually, returning the majority to shareholders through disciplined buybacks and dividends while maintaining a conservative leverage profile. Bull CaseUpside scenario $105.0030% Faster-than-expected market share gains in high-growth regions like China and India, combined with a slower global transition to battery electric vehicles (BEVs), prolongs the highly profitable ICE/hybrid lifecycle. This scenario drives higher-than-expected free cash flow, enabling accelerated share repurchases and further valuation multiple expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |