Phillips Edison & Company Inc Dossier
|
SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Retail Beta (adjusted)0.67 Intrinsic Value $35.46median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $37.49Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.3B Enterprise Value $7.7B Shares Outstanding 139.1M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Phillips Edison & Company, Inc. (PECO) represents a highly resilient, defensive investment opportunity within the retail real estate sector. Focused exclusively on necessity-based, grocery-anchored neighborhood shopping centers, PECO benefits from stable, cycle-tested cash flows. The company's strategic alignment with leading grocers (representing 94% of ABR from grocery-anchored centers) drives consistent foot traffic and strong tenant retention. With record-high occupancy levels, exceptional leasing spreads, and a robust balance sheet, PECO is well-positioned to deliver steady mid-single-digit earnings growth and attractive monthly dividend distributions. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$42.00 Mean target$45.85 High · most bullish analyst$49.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $42.00 Persistent macroeconomic headwinds, elevated interest rates, and localized tenant bankruptcies pressure inline retail occupancy. Same-center NOI growth slows below 2.5% as bad debt expenses rise, and higher borrowing costs limit the accretion of new acquisitions, compressing valuation multiples. Base CaseCentral scenario $45.85 Matches the consensus meanPECO successfully executes its 'locally smart' operating strategy, maintaining leased portfolio occupancy around 97% and delivering same-center NOI growth within its target range of 3.0% to 4.0%. Core FFO per share grows by 5.5% to 6.0% in 2026, supported by steady rent escalators and disciplined acquisitions of $400 million to $500 million. Bull CaseUpside scenario $49.00 Stronger-than-expected consumer spending on necessity goods drives accelerated grocer expansions. PECO capitalizes on its proprietary AI-driven leasing platform to push inline occupancy past 96% and secure renewal rent spreads above 25%. Accelerated capital recycling and accretive acquisitions exceeding $500 million drive Core FFO growth toward high-single digits. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |