Phillips 66 Dossier
|
SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing Beta (adjusted)0.79 Intrinsic Value $271.91median of 6 methods · middle span $125-$1,105based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $264.23Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 3% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $105.4B Enterprise Value $120.1B Shares Outstanding 402.1M diluted Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend18 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Phillips 66 entered the second half of 2026 with strong operations, materially lower leverage and substantial capital-return capacity. Second-quarter refining utilization was 96%, NGL fractionation reached a record 1,020 MBD, and total debt fell by $6.6 billion sequentially to $20.565 billion. The balance is cyclicality: realized refining margin increased from $10.11 per barrel in the first quarter to $24.08 in the second, while several growth projects add execution and funding exposure. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$160.00 Mean target$219.84 High · most bullish analyst$260.00 Street targets sit below today's price; our intrinsic value sits above it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $160.0019% Crack spreads and regulatory-credit values weaken, Chemicals remains cyclical, or major projects experience cost escalation or permitting delays. Lower operating cash flow combined with Western Gateway funding could slow debt reduction and constrain repurchases. Base CaseCentral scenario $219.8458% Matches the consensus meanRefining margins normalize from the unusually strong second quarter, but high utilization, growing NGL infrastructure, disciplined capital allocation and continued debt reduction sustain acceptable shareholder returns. Bull CaseUpside scenario $260.0023% Strong refining capture persists, Midstream volumes continue expanding, CPChem projects ramp successfully, and debt reduction progresses toward the $17 billion 2027 target. The additional $10 billion repurchase authorization then provides substantial flexibility to convert operating cash flow into per-share value. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |