Philip Morris International Inc Dossier
|
SectorConsumer Staples IndustryTobacco Beta (adjusted)0.58 Intrinsic Value $116.73median of 5 methods · middle span $116-$293based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $188.18Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 38% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $293.3B Enterprise Value $336.3B Shares Outstanding 1.6B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend25 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary PMI's international smoke-free franchise remains the central strength: second-quarter international smoke-free revenue and gross profit grew organically by 11.8% and 14.6%, respectively, while group organic revenue rose 7.6% and adjusted EPS rose 15.2%. FDA authorization of 11 ZYN ULTRA products broadens the U.S. portfolio. The offset is weak U.S. Profitability, only 1.8% ZYN shipment growth, regulatory and competitive exposure. The resulting stance is Hold pending evidence that U.S. investment restores profitable growth without weakening delivery against 2026 guidance. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$175.00 Mean target$203.80 High · most bullish analyst$225.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $175.0017% ZYN growth stalls, U.S. investment fails to improve profitability, and regulatory, excise-tax, currency, geopolitical, or competitive pressures reduce smoke-free momentum. Organic revenue growth falls below the company's 2026 range or deleveraging misses the approximately 2.0x year-end objective. Base CaseCentral scenario $203.8058% Matches the consensus meanInternational smoke-free momentum and combustible pricing keep group results within 2026 guidance, but U.S. ZYN competition and elevated investment constrain near-term U.S. profitability. Bull CaseUpside scenario $225.0025% International smoke-free growth remains in or above the high-single-digit range, IQOS and VEEV preserve favorable mix and margin effects, and the expanded FDA-authorized ZYN portfolio restores stronger U.S. volume and profit growth. PMI consequently delivers near the upper end of its 2026 adjusted EPS forecast and sustains its 2026-2028 growth targets. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |