Pharvaris NV Dossier - Source-backed chat

Pharvaris NV

PHVSNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)-1.22

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $31.01Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $2.2B

Enterprise Value $1.9B

Shares Outstanding 70.2M diluted

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Pharvaris N.V. is a late-stage biopharmaceutical company uniquely positioned to disrupt the hereditary angioedema (HAE) market with deucrictibant, a highly potent, oral small-molecule bradykinin B2 receptor antagonist. By developing distinct formulations—an immediate-release (IR) capsule for rapid on-demand treatment and an extended-release (XR) tablet for once-daily prophylaxis—Pharvaris addresses the significant patient preference shift from injectable biologics to convenient oral alternatives. Backed by a robust cash runway extending into 2028 following a successful $132.3 million capital raise in May 2026, the company is well-funded to advance its pivotal Phase 3 readouts and prepare for commercial launch.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets14 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$38.11

Mean target$48.70

High · most bullish analyst$75.23

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$38.11

CHAPTER-3 topline data shows underwhelming prophylactic efficacy or unexpected safety signals, or the FDA issues a complete response letter (CRL) or clinical hold during the NDA review of deucrictibant IR. Competitors like KalVista capture first-mover advantage in the oral on-demand market, and the company's cash runway is depleted faster than expected, forcing dilutive financing or pipeline prioritization.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$48.70

Matches the consensus mean

Deucrictibant IR is successfully submitted for FDA approval in 1H2026 based on positive RAPIDe-3 data, and CHAPTER-3 prophylactic data in 3Q2026 confirms Phase 2 efficacy trends. Pharvaris establishes its initial U.S. commercial infrastructure (targeting ~70 people) and prepares for a mid-2027 launch, establishing itself as a highly competitive player in the oral HAE segment alongside KalVista's sebetralstat.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$75.23

The upcoming CHAPTER-3 Phase 3 trial for deucrictibant XR (prophylaxis) delivers outstanding efficacy matching or exceeding injectable standards (Takhzyro) with a clean safety profile, while the deucrictibant IR NDA is accepted and approved rapidly. Commercial adoption is swift, capturing significant market share from both injectables and first-generation oral therapies (Orladeyo) due to superior efficacy and convenience, driving peak sales expectations toward $2.5 billion.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Differentiated dual-modality oral strategy addressing both acute (on-demand) and prophylactic HAE markets with a single active ingredient (deucrictibant).
Strong clinical data from the Phase 3 RAPIDe-3 trial showing rapid symptom relief (median 1.28 hours) and high single-dose resolution rates (83%).
Robust balance sheet with €247 million in cash as of March 31, 2026, further bolstered by a $132.3 million public offering in May 2026, extending the cash runway into 2028.

Key Investment Risks

Clinical development and regulatory approval risks, particularly regarding the upcoming CHAPTER-3 Phase 3 readout in 3Q2026 and the deucrictibant IR NDA review.
Intense competition from established injectable blockbusters (Takeda's Takhzyro) and emerging oral competitors (KalVista's sebetralstat, BioCryst's Orladeyo).
Commercial execution risks as a clinical-stage company transitioning to build its first commercial sales force and navigate payer reimbursement.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of the CHAPTER-3 Phase 3 trial to meet its primary efficacy endpoint for HAE prophylaxis.
Regulatory delays, refusal to file, or a Complete Response Letter (CRL) from the FDA regarding the deucrictibant IR NDA.
Unexpected serious adverse events (SAEs) or safety signals emerging from the long-term open-label extension studies (CHAPTER-4 or RAPIDe-2).

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.