Pfizer Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryPharmaceuticals Beta (adjusted)0.55 Intrinsic Value $21.96median of 5 methods · middle span $13-$25based on filings through 28 Jun 2026 Market Price $28.12Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 22% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $160.3B Enterprise Value $222.4B Shares Outstanding 5.7B diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend24 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Pfizer's outlook is balanced. Second-quarter revenue reached $15.034 billion, non-COVID revenue grew 5% operationally, and launched and acquired products grew 18% operationally, supporting the raised $60.5-$62.5 billion 2026 revenue range. Pipeline progress includes approval of the XFG-adapted COVID-19 vaccine and EMA validation of the Lyme-disease vaccine application, while productivity programs provide additional earnings support. Offsetting these positives are steep COVID-franchise declines, anticipated generic and biosimilar pressure, a $4.3 billion quarterly intangible-asset impairment, and clinical attrition exemplified by sigvotatug vedotin missing its primary overall-survival endpoint. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$25.00 Mean target$28.61 High · most bullish analyst$35.75 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $25.0020% COVID-product revenue falls below the revised approximately $4 billion expectation, generic and biosimilar erosion exceeds the anticipated impact, additional clinical or regulatory setbacks reduce pipeline value, and cost-saving initiatives fail to offset commercial pressure and restructuring costs. Base CaseCentral scenario $28.6158% Matches the consensus meanPfizer delivers within its $60.5-$62.5 billion revenue and $2.80-$3.00 adjusted diluted EPS guidance ranges. Growth from newer and acquired products and cost programs largely offsets COVID normalization, generic and biosimilar competition, and normal pipeline attrition. Bull CaseUpside scenario $35.7522% Launched and acquired products sustain strong operational growth, the XFG-adapted vaccine converts approval into seasonal demand, the Lyme-disease vaccine progresses successfully through European review, and oncology and obesity programs produce favorable milestones. Delivery of the planned cost-realignment and manufacturing savings would further strengthen the outcome. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |