Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras ADR Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryIntegrated Oil & Gas Beta (adjusted)0.19 Intrinsic Value $10.95median of 6 methods · middle span $10-$59based on filings through 30 Jun 2025 Market Price $20.98Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 48% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $135.2B Enterprise Value $151.5B Shares Outstanding 6.4B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend25 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Petrobras offers a favorable but commodity-sensitive combination of record upstream production, a large reserve base, low-cost pre-salt projects and material shareholder distributions. The 2Q26 result package reported total production of 3.34 million boed, while the 2026-2030 plan targets a 3.4 million-boed peak, an average prospective portfolio break-even Brent price of about US$25 per barrel and ordinary dividends of US$45-US$50 billion over the plan period. These strengths support a Buy view at the official IR-page ADR quote of US$18.31, but the thesis requires continued capital discipline: the US$109 billion program includes conditionally financed projects, the plan's 2026 net-debt-neutral Brent threshold is US$59 per barrel, and gross debt is capped at US$75 billion. ADR distributions also remain variable and exposed to currency conversion, withholding and payment timing. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$17.40 Mean target$22.01 High · most bullish analyst$27.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $12.0019% A prolonged Brent price below the plan's US$59-per-barrel 2026 net-debt-neutral level, combined with project delays or cost pressure, could weaken cash coverage, push gross debt toward or above its US$75 billion ceiling and force lower distributions or capex reprioritization. The US$12 ADR target reflects that downside combination and is an analyst-authored scenario value. Base CaseCentral scenario $21.5458% The base case assumes most contracted production additions perform broadly to plan, total production remains above 3.0 million boed, gross debt stays within the US$75 billion ceiling and ordinary distributions remain meaningful despite the investment cycle. Bull CaseUpside scenario $27.0023% A sustained Brent environment above the plan's financing thresholds, timely ramp-up of contracted production systems and delivery of operating-cost efficiencies could move total production toward 3.4 million boed while allowing gross debt to converge toward US$65 billion. Ordinary dividends could reach the upper end of the company's US$45-US$50 billion plan estimate. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |