Personalis Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryDiagnostics & Research Beta (adjusted)1.84 Intrinsic Value $3.85median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $16.17Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 76% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-76%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.7B Enterprise Value $1.6B Shares Outstanding 106.1M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Personalis is executing a highly strategic transition from legacy, low-margin population sequencing and enterprise sales to its ultra-sensitive NeXT Personal minimal residual disease (MRD) platform. While this transition has caused short-term top-line compression, the underlying clinical momentum is exceptionally strong. Clinical test volumes surged 258% year-over-year in Q1 2026, supported by newly secured Medicare coverage for lung and breast cancer surveillance. With a robust cash cushion of $233.2 million and a powerful distribution partnership with Tempus, Personalis is well-positioned to capture a significant share of the rapidly expanding multi-billion dollar MRD diagnostics market. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$10.00 Mean target$13.88 High · most bullish analyst$16.25 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $10.0015% Reimbursement delays from private payers and slower-than-expected MolDX coverage expansion for other solid tumors limit clinical revenue growth. High cash burn persists, forcing highly dilutive equity raises. Intense competition from established players like Natera (Signatera) and Guardant Health limits market share gains. Base CaseCentral scenario $13.8860% Matches the consensus meanPersonalis successfully meets its full-year 2026 guidance, delivering total revenue of $78.0M - $80.0M and clinical test volumes of 43,000 - 45,000. Medicare reimbursement for lung and breast cancer surveillance stabilizes average selling prices (ASPs), while cash usage is kept within the projected $100.0M limit, supported by strategic ATM program execution. Bull CaseUpside scenario $16.2525% Rapid commercial adoption of NeXT Personal driven by accelerated Medicare and private payer coverage across multiple solid tumors. The Tempus partnership scales distribution faster than expected, driving clinical revenues above the high end of guidance. Biopharma MRD partnerships expand significantly, leading to positive cash flow ahead of the 2028 consensus timeline. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |