Permian Resources Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas E&P Beta (adjusted)0.66 Intrinsic Value $39.41median of 6 methods · middle span $26-$69based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $21.93Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 80% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+80%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $18.4B Enterprise Value $21.5B Shares Outstanding 825.4M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend16 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Permian Resources offers a constructive risk-reward profile based on rising oil output, competitive controllable costs, substantial free-cash-flow generation and a strengthening investment-grade balance sheet. Second-quarter oil production reached 198,071 Bbls/d, management raised the 2026 oil-production midpoint to 199,000 Bbls/d, and it expects second-half production above 200,000 Bbls/d with less than $1 billion of capital spending. The principal offsets are commodity-price volatility, weak Waha natural-gas pricing, execution risk from continued acquisitions and the possibility that capital spending or leverage exceeds management's stated framework. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$22.00 Mean target$25.63 High · most bullish analyst$30.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $22.0019% Commodity prices and regional natural-gas differentials weaken, capital expenditures exceed the revised ceiling, or acquisition and development returns disappoint. Lower cash generation combined with leverage above management's approximately 0.5x expectation would constrain shareholder returns and compress the valuation. Base CaseCentral scenario $25.6356% Matches the consensus meanThe company delivers approximately the 199,000 Bbls/d full-year oil-production midpoint, keeps capital spending within $1.9-$2.0 billion and maintains leverage near 0.5x while continuing its $0.64 annualized base dividend. Bull CaseUpside scenario $30.0025% Oil production remains above 200,000 Bbls/d during the second half, controllable costs stay below the midpoint of guidance, acquired inventory supports capital-efficient growth and continuing debt reduction lowers interest expense. Under this outcome, stronger free cash flow and shareholder distributions support a premium valuation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |