Performance Food Group Company Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryFood Distribution Beta (adjusted)0.94 Intrinsic Value $98.81median of 6 methods · middle span $71-$240based on filings through 27 Jun 2026 Market Price $91.84Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 8% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $14.4B Enterprise Value $19.4B Shares Outstanding 157M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Performance Food Group enters fiscal 2027 with favorable operating momentum: fiscal 2026 net sales increased 7.2%, adjusted EBITDA increased 9.2%, organic Independent Foodservice case volume increased 5.9%, and free cash flow reached $1.03 billion. Management's fiscal 2027 guidance calls for $72.5-$73.0 billion of net sales and $2.125-$2.225 billion of adjusted EBITDA. These positives are balanced by the company's low-margin distribution model, acquisition-integration exposure, rising interest expense, fuel and labor sensitivity, and adjusted EPS growth of only 1.6% in fiscal 2026. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$72.00 Mean target$123.62 High · most bullish analyst$144.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $72.0018% Independent Foodservice volume and favorable mix weaken, while fuel, labor, insurance or integration costs constrain profitability. Fiscal 2027 sales or adjusted EBITDA fall below management's guided low ends, and the low-margin operating structure causes a disproportionate reduction in earnings and cash generation. Base CaseCentral scenario $123.6258% Matches the consensus meanPerformance Food Group delivers fiscal 2027 results within management's $72.5-$73.0 billion net-sales and $2.125-$2.225 billion adjusted EBITDA ranges. Independent-customer growth and procurement benefits offset ongoing fuel, labor, insurance, interest and integration costs. Bull CaseUpside scenario $144.0024% Independent Foodservice share gains and favorable mix persist, Convenience maintains strong profit growth, and acquisition integration improves. Fiscal 2027 results reach or exceed the upper ends of management's sales and adjusted EBITDA ranges, while cash generation supports debt reduction or more meaningful use of the authorized repurchase program. Progress toward the company's fiscal 2028 adjusted EBITDA target of $2.3-$2.5 billion strengthens the earnings outlook. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |