Penumbra Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Penumbra Inc

PENNYSE

SectorHealth Care

IndustryMedical Devices

Beta (adjusted)0.80

Intrinsic Value $345.57median of 6 methods · middle span $250-$501based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $318.00Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $12.5B

Enterprise Value $12.3B

Shares Outstanding 39.7M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Penumbra's operating momentum remains favorable, with second-quarter 2026 revenue growth of 14.9%, gross margin of 67.9%, and growth in both thrombectomy and embolization/access. FDA clearance and encouraging THUNDER study results for THUNDERBOLT strengthen the product outlook. Nevertheless, the investment case is currently dominated by Boston Scientific's pending cash-and-stock acquisition, announced at a reference value of $374 per Penumbra share. The fixed 3.8721-share stock election, aggregate proration and outstanding closing conditions create value and timing uncertainty.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets12 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$323.00

Mean target$361.83

High · most bullish analyst$374.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$323.0015%

Regulatory approval or another closing condition materially delays or prevents completion. Penumbra then trades on standalone fundamentals without the announced transaction reference value, while acquisition-related disruption, reduced guidance visibility and execution risk pressure valuation.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$361.8370%

Matches the consensus mean

The acquisition closes substantially on its announced terms during 2026. The price target uses the transaction's $374-per-share reference value; actual proceeds can differ because approximately 27% of aggregate consideration is stock, individual elections are subject to proration and the fixed stock ratio changes in value with Boston Scientific shares.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$374.0015%

The acquisition closes during 2026, Boston Scientific shares appreciate enough to raise the value of the fixed-ratio stock component, and THUNDERBOLT plus Lightning Flash 3.0 adoption reinforces Penumbra's strategic value.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 revenue increased 14.9% year over year, with thrombectomy up 12.5% and embolization/access up 20.0%.
Second-quarter 2026 gross margin reached 67.9%, 1.9 percentage points above the prior-year quarter.
THUNDERBOLT received FDA clearance, and the 216-patient THUNDER study reported 87.5% successful reperfusion and a 2.8% device- or procedure-related serious-adverse-event rate.

Key Investment Risks

The announced acquisition remains subject to required approvals and other closing conditions, and Penumbra states that it may not close in the expected timeframe or at all.
Approximately 27% of aggregate transaction consideration is Boston Scientific stock at a fixed exchange ratio, so realized value is exposed to Boston Scientific's share price and proration.
Penumbra withdrew full-year 2026 guidance because of the pending acquisition, reducing standalone forecast visibility.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.