Pentair plc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Pentair plc

PNRNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustrySpecialty Industrial Machinery

Beta (adjusted)1.03

Intrinsic Value $75.14median of 6 methods · middle span $69-$79based on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $52.88Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 42% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $8.5B

Enterprise Value $10.4B

Shares Outstanding 162.9M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend24 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Pentair's second-quarter 2026 disclosure created a sharply divided investment case. Flow and Water Solutions retained strong profitability, but Pool-channel destocking drove a 17% companywide core-sales decline, an 18% decline in adjusted EPS and a substantial reduction in full-year guidance. The proposed Taco Group acquisition could diversify growth toward hydronic, commercial-building and data-center water applications, but it also introduces financing, integration and execution risk while Pentair is managing a Pool-channel correction and an interim-CFO transition.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets14 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$60.00

Mean target$76.64

High · most bullish analyst$94.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$60.0027%

Pool-channel destocking extends into 2027, adjusted EPS falls below revised guidance, or the Taco acquisition is delayed or proves more costly to finance and integrate than anticipated. Continued forecasting or leadership disruption would further weaken investor confidence.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$76.6453%

Matches the consensus mean

Pentair delivers within its revised $4.60-$4.80 adjusted-EPS range and contains the Pool correction near the revised outlook while its other businesses remain resilient. Taco closes substantially on announced terms, but investors require evidence of inventory normalization, successful integration and stable financial leadership before assigning a materially higher valuation.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$94.0020%

Pool inventories normalize without further material reductions, Flow and Water Solutions sustain their strong profitability, and the Taco transaction closes in the fourth quarter with a credible path to the announced run-rate synergies. Restored confidence in guidance and a visible 2027 Pool recovery support a higher valuation.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Flow and Water Solutions provided meaningful portfolio resilience, with second-quarter adjusted return on sales of approximately 26.5% and 30.0%, respectively.
The proposed Taco acquisition adds established hydronic products, pumps, valves, tanks, heat exchangers and controls serving commercial, industrial and residential markets.
Pentair has continued shareholder distributions, including a $150 million second-quarter share repurchase and a quarterly dividend associated with its 50th consecutive annual dividend increase.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter Pool sales declined approximately 42%, with channel destocking reducing Pool sales by about $170 million and Pool segment income by about $105 million.
Management reduced fiscal-2026 adjusted-EPS guidance to $4.60-$4.80 and changed its sales outlook from growth to a decline of approximately 4%-7%.
The departure of the recently appointed CFO and return of Bob Fishman as interim CFO increase near-term leadership and forecasting uncertainty.
The approximately $1.4 billion Taco transaction is expected to use cash and bridge financing, creating closing, refinancing and integration exposure.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.