Penske Automotive Group Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAuto & Truck Dealerships Beta (adjusted)0.90 Intrinsic Value $155.29median of 6 methods · middle span $145-$177based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $202.84Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 23% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $13.3B Enterprise Value $15.7B Shares Outstanding 65.5M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Penske Automotive Group is an event-driven Hold. The shares were quoted at $217.00 on August 31, 2026, above the unsolicited $210-per-share preliminary cash proposal from Penske Corporation and Mitsui, while the independent special committee had retained financial and legal advisers but had not announced a definitive agreement. Operating evidence is mixed: second-quarter retail automotive same-store revenue rose 5.7%, service-and-parts margin improved, and PTS equity earnings increased 7%, but total retail automotive gross margin contracted to 15.9% from 16.9%, vehicle gross profit per unit declined year over year, and six-month commercial-truck deliveries fell. The market price therefore already reflects meaningful transaction or renegotiation optionality, limiting the attractiveness of adding exposure before definitive terms emerge. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$205.00 Mean target$211.25 High · most bullish analyst$220.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $140.1225% The non-binding proposal is withdrawn or fails to produce an agreement while automotive gross-margin compression and weak commercial-truck deliveries persist. In that event, transaction premium expectations could unwind toward the lower end of the stock's officially reported 52-week range. Base CaseCentral scenario $211.2555% Matches the consensus meanThe preliminary $210 cash proposal remains the most concrete value reference while the special committee evaluates it. Mixed operating trends and the market price already exceeding the proposal support a Hold stance. Bull CaseUpside scenario $227.0020% The special committee negotiates consideration above the preliminary $210 proposal, or continued operating improvement sustains a valuation near the official 52-week high. Strong retail unit demand, improving service-and-parts profitability and recovery in freight-related activity support this outcome. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |