Pennant Group Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryMedical Care Facilities Beta (adjusted)1.19 Intrinsic Value $36.85median of 6 methods · middle span $22-$39based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $38.79Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.4B Enterprise Value $1.5B Shares Outstanding 35.9M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary The Pennant Group, Inc. (PNTG) represents a compelling growth opportunity in the post-acute healthcare sector. By utilizing a highly decentralized, hyper-local operating model, Pennant successfully drives organic growth and integrates strategic tuck-in acquisitions across home health, hospice, and senior living. The company's unique 'local leadership' culture allows individual agencies to operate under regional brands, securing strong local referral networks that outperform centralized national competitors. With robust demographic tailwinds from an aging U.S. population and a positive policy backdrop focusing on compliant operators, Pennant is well-positioned to continue its double-digit top-line and bottom-line expansion. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$42.00 Mean target$46.33 High · most bullish analyst$49.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $42.0020% Persistent wage inflation and labor shortages for clinical staff compress operating margins. Integration delays or census recovery setbacks in newly acquired Southeast territories, combined with restrictive regulatory changes, limit bottom-line growth. Base CaseCentral scenario $46.3350% Matches the consensus meanPennant successfully executes its 2026 roadmap, achieving revenues between $1.13 billion and $1.17 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.26 to $1.36. The Southeast transition completes on schedule by Q3 2026, and steady occupancy gains in senior living continue alongside disciplined tuck-in acquisitions. Bull CaseUpside scenario $49.0030% Accelerated integration of Southeast acquisitions and stronger-than-expected organic census growth drive same-store margins higher. Favorable Medicare rate adjustments and aggressive tuck-in M&A execution push annual revenues and EBITDA past the high end of management's guidance. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |