Pembina Pipeline Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Pembina Pipeline Corp

PBANYSE

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Midstream

Beta (adjusted)0.72

Intrinsic Value $26.15median of 6 methods · middle span $24-$62based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $45.28Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 42% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $26.3B

Enterprise Value $38.9B

Shares Outstanding 581M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Pembina offers visible contracted and fee-based growth, supported by a 5-7 percent compound annual fee-based adjusted EBITDA-per-share target through 2030, Cedar LNG progress, the completed RFS IV expansion, and the sanctioned Heartland and Greenlight projects. Second-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA increased to C$1.064 billion and management reiterated C$4.35-C$4.55 billion of full-year guidance. The counterweight is execution exposure from approximately C$3 billion of newly sanctioned net investment, commodity-sensitive marketing results, and major projects extending through 2028-2030.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets1 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$47.52

Mean target$47.52

High · most bullish analyst$47.52

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$47.5220%

Adjusted EBITDA falls below guidance, weaker commodity-linked marketing offsets fee-based growth, or Cedar LNG, Heartland or Greenlight experiences material delays or cost escalation. The C$48.69 target uses the lower bound of Pembina's issuer-disclosed 52-week trading range as a transparent downside reference rather than an uncited estimate.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$47.5260%

Matches the consensus mean

Pembina delivers within the C$4.35-C$4.55 billion 2026 adjusted EBITDA range, maintains its C$0.735 quarterly dividend, and progresses Cedar LNG, Heartland and Greenlight broadly on schedule.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$47.5220%

Pembina delivers near the upper end of 2026 guidance, sustains its targeted 5-7 percent fee-based adjusted EBITDA-per-share growth, Cedar LNG remains on schedule for late-2028 exports, and Heartland and Greenlight advance without material cost revisions.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Management targets 5-7 percent compound annual fee-based adjusted EBITDA-per-share growth through 2030, supported by higher utilization, sanctioned projects and development opportunities.
Cedar LNG's floating vessel was more than 70 percent complete, its supply pipeline had reached mechanical completion, and first exports remained expected in late 2028.
RFS IV entered service on time and under budget, adding 55,000 bpd of fractionation capacity, while Heartland and Greenlight add contracted or fee-oriented growth platforms.

Key Investment Risks

Greenlight requires approximately C$2.1 billion of net Pembina investment and is not expected in service until the second half of 2030; approximately 85 percent, rather than all, of project cost was secured under fixed-price agreements.
Heartland's economics depend partly on frac-spread exposure and on Dow's Path2Zero schedule, creating commodity and counterparty-project dependencies.
Pembina identified commodity prices, interruptible volumes, foreign exchange and share-price-linked compensation as key variables determining where 2026 adjusted EBITDA lands within guidance.
Cedar LNG construction and first-export timing remain exposed to contractor, supply-chain, regulatory and third-party execution risks.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.