Peloton Interactive Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryLeisure Beta (adjusted)2.03 Intrinsic Value $7.53median of 4 methods · middle span $6-$9based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $4.97Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 52% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+52%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.2B Enterprise Value $2.3B Shares Outstanding 436.2M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Peloton Interactive, Inc. is navigating a complex operational turnaround under its new leadership. While the company has successfully achieved positive GAAP net income of $26 million and generated strong Adjusted EBITDA of $126 million in Q3 FY26, its top-line growth remains stagnant with total revenue up only 1% year-over-year. Paid Connected Fitness Subscriptions continue to decline, down 7.6% year-over-year to 2.662 million. The company's transition from a high-growth hardware business to a high-margin, subscription-focused model is showing signs of financial stabilization, but sustained subscriber growth is required to justify a more bullish outlook. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$4.00 Mean target$8.00 High · most bullish analyst$20.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $4.0015% The bear case is triggered by accelerating subscriber churn (exceeding 1.5% monthly) due to intense competition from digital fitness apps and traditional gyms. Continued declines in Connected Fitness Subscriptions would erode the high-margin recurring revenue base, leading to missed FY26 guidance and renewed pressure on the balance sheet. Base CaseCentral scenario $8.0060% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes revenue remains relatively flat to slightly down (-2% to 1% growth) as hardware sales stabilize and subscription revenue offsets hardware declines. Churn remains stable at 1.2%, and cost-cutting measures keep Adjusted EBITDA within the guided range of $450 million to $500 million for FY26. Valuation multiples remain compressed due to lack of clear top-line growth catalysts. Bull CaseUpside scenario $11.0025% The bull case is driven by successful execution of the subscription-first model, stabilization of the subscriber base, and expansion of high-margin digital app tiers. If Peloton can leverage its partnerships, refurbished hardware programs, and gamified content (e.g., Lanebreak) to reverse subscriber declines while maintaining low churn (~1.2%), operating leverage will drive significant free cash flow expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |