Pegasystems Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Application Beta (adjusted)0.91 Intrinsic Value $51.13median of 6 methods · middle span $33-$73based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $34.43Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 49% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.7B Enterprise Value $5.5B Shares Outstanding 174.6M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) represents a compelling turnaround and growth opportunity as it completes its multi-year transition to a cloud-based subscription model. The company's financial profile is inflecting positively, characterized by accelerating Annual Contract Value (ACV) growth, expanding operating margins, and robust free cash flow generation. Crucially, the elimination of the massive $2.0 billion Appian litigation overhang by the Virginia courts removes a major risk that previously depressed the stock's valuation. With its generative AI-powered 'Blueprint' platform shortening sales cycles and driving enterprise transformation, PEGA is well-positioned to capture market share in the digital process automation and customer engagement software spaces. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$25.00 Mean target$43.00 High · most bullish analyst$60.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects potential headwinds from macroeconomic slowdowns delaying large enterprise IT transformation deals. Intensifying competition from low-code rivals like Appian and workflow giants like ServiceNow could pressure pricing and slow new logo acquisition. Additionally, persistent foreign currency fluctuations could negatively impact international revenues, keeping stock performance capped near recent lows. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes Pegasystems successfully executes its FY 2026 guidance, achieving approximately 15% ACV growth and generating $575 million in free cash flow. Pega Cloud continues to grow at a 30%+ rate, offsetting declines in legacy maintenance and term license revenues. The company leverages its generative AI Blueprint platform to expand its enterprise footprint and sustain high gross margins (~74%). Valuation multiples expand moderately from depressed levels as the market recognizes the durability of its recurring cash flows. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |