PEDEVCO Corp Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production Beta (adjusted)0.49 Intrinsic Value No headline value published yetWe haven't published a headline intrinsic value for this company yet. Our data-reliability standards weren't met. Method estimates are shown for reference. Market Price $13.12Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $174.4M Enterprise Value $250.6M Shares Outstanding 13.3M diluted Next Earnings Date16 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) has successfully transformed into a scaled, oil-weighted Rockies-focused consolidation platform following its merger with Juniper Capital's portfolio companies in late 2025. The integration has driven a massive 374% year-over-year increase in daily production to 8,091 Boe/d and a 360% surge in quarterly revenue to $40.2 million in Q1 2026. Although GAAP net income is temporarily depressed by non-cash mark-to-market derivative losses ($31.3 million in Q1 2026), the underlying operational performance is exceptionally strong, with Adjusted EBITDA rising 404% to $21.5 million. With over 310,000 net acres, a deep inventory of over 1,100 gross drilling locations, and significant cost-out synergies targeted by 2027, PED represents a highly attractive, undervalued micro-cap E&P play. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$18.00 Mean target$18.22 High · most bullish analyst$18.44 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $9.0015% Sustained operational cost inflation, delays in non-operated well completions, or a sharp decline in crude oil prices below $55/bbl limits cash flow generation. High debt levels under the revolving credit facility restrict financial flexibility, and persistent derivative hedging losses continue to weigh on GAAP earnings. Base CaseCentral scenario $18.0065% The company successfully integrates the Juniper assets, achieves its targeted $10-$12 million in annualized lease operating expense savings by 2027, and maintains average daily production above 8,000 Boe/d. Strong cash flow generation from the Rockies platform allows the company to pay down its revolving credit facility and fund organic development. Bull CaseUpside scenario $18.0025% The company accelerates development of its expanded Rockies inventory, exceeding production targets to average over 10,000 Boe/d. Higher-than-expected commodity prices combined with rapid realization of the targeted $12 million in annualized LOE savings drive substantial free cash flow, allowing rapid debt paydown and potential shareholder returns. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |