Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corp

PGCNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)0.81

Intrinsic Value $38.45median of 5 methods · middle span $33-$39based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $44.03Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $780.6M

Enterprise Value $601.5M

Shares Outstanding 18.2M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend13 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corp (PGC) is successfully executing its private banking strategy, driven by geographic expansion into the high-growth Metropolitan New York region and robust performance in its wealth management division. The company has achieved six consecutive quarters of core earnings growth, supported by expanding net interest margins (NIM) and strong loan and deposit growth. Trading near its tangible book value, PGC offers a compelling valuation with clear pathways to achieving best-in-class returns (1% ROA and 10% ROC) by late 2026 or early 2027. While asset quality in rent-regulated multifamily loans and elevated operating expenses from talent acquisition require close monitoring, the bank's strong capital position and diversified fee income make it an attractive investment.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$55.00

Mean target$56.00

High · most bullish analyst$58.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Credit quality deteriorates significantly within the New York rent-regulated multifamily loan portfolio, requiring substantial provisions that wipe out earnings momentum. Additionally, high fixed expenses from recent talent acquisition fail to generate expected revenue, stalling NIM expansion and compressing profitability.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The bank continues to scale its commercial and industrial (C&I) lending and private banking operations in New York, maintaining low-double-digit loan and deposit growth. NIM expands by 2-3 basis points quarterly, and wealth management AUMA remains stable or grows, driving full-year EPS toward the consensus estimate of $3.68-$3.86. The efficiency ratio continues to improve as prior investments in talent bear fruit.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corp (PGC) is successfully executing a strategic pivot from traditional community banking to a high-margin boutique private banking and wealth management model. Key growth drivers include: 1) Aggressive expansion of its commercial banking footprint in the affluent Metro New York market, which is expected to match its New Jersey operations in size. 2) Strong momentum in its Wealth Management division, which boasts over $13 billion in assets under management (AUM) and generates stable, recurring fee income. 3) Improving operational metrics, including a rising net interest margin (NIM), declining efficiency ratios, and robust loan book growth with improving credit quality. 4) Compelling valuation, with shares trading near tangible book value (~$39.48) despite strong earnings momentum projected into 2027, backed by significant insider buying from senior leadership.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Six consecutive quarters of core earnings growth with strong Q1 2026 net income of $14.2 million (up 86% YoY).
Expanding Net Interest Margin (NIM), which reached 3.26% in Q1 2026, up 18 basis points sequentially.
Highly diversified business model with a robust wealth management division managing $13.1 billion in AUMA, contributing 20% of total revenue.
Successful geographic expansion into the Metropolitan New York region, securing over 1,300 commercial relationships and $2.1 billion in deposits.
Strong capital position following a $30 million preferred equity issuance and the redemption of $100 million in subordinated debt.

Key Investment Risks

Exposure to rent-regulated multifamily real estate loans in New York, which face structural and regulatory headwinds.
Elevated expense base from rapid talent acquisition and footprint expansion, which could pressure margins if revenue growth slows.
Potential for increased credit provisions if early-stage delinquencies or macroeconomic pressures escalate.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sharp rise in nonperforming assets (NPAs) beyond 1.25% of total assets, driven by systemic failures in the multifamily portfolio.
NIM expansion stalling or reversing due to intense deposit pricing competition.
Failure to cross the 1% ROA and 10% ROC thresholds by early 2027, indicating an inability to scale the high expense base efficiently.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.