Peabody Energy Corp Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryThermal Coal Beta (adjusted)0.52 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $24.74Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $3B Enterprise Value $2.8B Shares Outstanding 121.5M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend12 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) presents a balanced risk/reward profile at current levels. While the company benefits from a robust balance sheet, solid domestic thermal coal demand, and strategic growth initiatives—specifically the ramp-up of its flagship Centurion metallurgical coal mine in Australia—recent operational challenges and delays have tempered near-term upside. First-quarter 2026 results highlighted earnings volatility, with adjusted EBITDA declining significantly year-over-year due to Centurion ramp-up issues and acquisition termination costs. Although the long-term transition toward higher-margin metallurgical coal remains a key value driver, current valuation multiples appear to fairly reflect these positive catalysts, justifying a Hold rating. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$26.50 Mean target$30.58 High · most bullish analyst$36.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects prolonged operational delays or geological challenges at the Centurion mine, preventing the company from achieving its metallurgical coal volume targets. Simultaneously, a downturn in global industrial activity weakens metallurgical coal prices, while accelerating coal plant retirements in the U.S. structurally reduces domestic thermal demand. Elevated capital expenditures combined with weaker cash generation compress margins and limit the company's capacity for shareholder distributions. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes steady progress in the Centurion mine longwall operations, allowing Peabody to gradually scale its premium hard coking coal production toward its multi-year targets. Seaborne thermal and domestic U.S. thermal segments are expected to provide stable cash flow baselines, supported by favorable domestic demand and policy tailwinds. Under this scenario, Peabody maintains its strong net cash position and continues to execute its shareholder return framework, primarily through share buybacks, while trading near its historical valuation multiples. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |