PBF Energy Inc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing Beta (adjusted)0.41 Intrinsic Value $31.29median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $82.34Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 62% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-62%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $9.8B Enterprise Value $10.6B Shares Outstanding 120.9M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary PBF Energy is navigating a pivotal operational turnaround in 2026, highlighted by the near-completion of the Martinez refinery restart and the expansion of its lower-carbon footprint via the St. Bernard Renewables (SBR) joint venture. While the company's Refining Business Improvement (RBI) program continues to optimize its cost structure, persistent macro headwinds, volatile refining margins, and operational execution risks warrant a cautious near-term outlook. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$38.00 Mean target$66.69 High · most bullish analyst$84.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $38.0015% Unplanned operational downtimes or safety incidents delay full utilization at Martinez or other key refineries. Narrowing crude differentials, rising feedstock costs for SBR, and a sharp decline in global refining crack spreads compress margins, leading to wider-than-expected losses and limiting capital return flexibility. Base CaseCentral scenario $66.6960% Matches the consensus meanPBF Energy achieves full operational status at Martinez in early May 2026, with throughput averaging within guidance. The SBR facility maintains steady production of 15,000 to 16,000 barrels per day, and the RBI program progresses toward its $350 million annualized run-rate savings target by year-end. Refining margins remain volatile but supportive, keeping the stock valued near historical averages. Bull CaseUpside scenario $84.0025% The Martinez refinery successfully returns to full capacity ahead of schedule, capturing elevated West Coast crack spreads. Concurrently, the SBR biorefinery benefits from favorable regulatory shifts and lower feedstock costs, while the RBI program exceeds its $350 million cost-savings target, driving significant free cash flow generation and debt reduction. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |