PayPal Holdings, Inc. Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryTransaction & Payment Processing Services Beta (adjusted)1.17 Intrinsic Value $81.32median of 6 methods · middle span $67-$105based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $53.06Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 53% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+53%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $45.7B Enterprise Value $48.2B Shares Outstanding 889M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary PayPal's second-quarter results showed improving operating momentum: total payment volume reached USD 486.4 billion, transaction margin dollars increased to USD 3.9 billion, and management raised its FY2026 outlook to approximately USD 15.6 billion of transaction margin dollars, USD 5.38 of non-GAAP EPS, and at least USD 6 billion of adjusted free cash flow. The central debate remains whether 2% FX-neutral branded-checkout growth represents durable stabilization. Venmo, Braintree, advertising, agentic-commerce partnerships and a planned USD 1.5 billion-plus gross run-rate savings program provide additional avenues for value creation. At the USD 53.66 August 28 closing price reported by PayPal IR, the risk/reward supports a Buy, but confidence is moderated by margin pressure, leadership transition and execution risk. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$36.00 Mean target$59.16 High · most bullish analyst$147.39 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $36.0020% Branded-checkout growth falls back to zero or negative territory, transaction-margin improvement stalls, and reorganization or technology-modernization costs delay savings. Competitive pressure and continued operating-margin contraction prevent the raised FY2026 outlook from translating into durable medium-term growth. Base CaseCentral scenario $59.1655% Matches the consensus meanPayPal delivers approximately USD 15.6 billion of FY2026 transaction margin dollars, USD 5.38 of non-GAAP EPS and at least USD 6 billion of adjusted free cash flow. Branded checkout remains positive but modest, while Venmo, Braintree and disciplined cost actions support gradual improvement. Bull CaseUpside scenario $147.3925% Branded checkout accelerates beyond low-single-digit growth while Venmo, Braintree and newer commerce services sustain stronger growth. PayPal executes at least USD 1.5 billion of gross run-rate savings without impairing product investment, allowing transaction-margin growth and cash generation to exceed the current FY2026 outlook. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |