Paychex, Inc. Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryHuman Resource & Employment Services Beta (adjusted)0.87 Intrinsic Value $136.40median of 6 methods · middle span $108-$173based on filings through 31 May 2026 Market Price $100.84Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 35% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $35.9B Enterprise Value $39.4B Shares Outstanding 360M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date18 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend28 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Paychex enters fiscal 2027 with durable client scale, a broad HCM and advisory portfolio, Paycor-enabled expansion into larger customers, and an expanding AI capability through WISE. Management guides to 5%-6% total-revenue growth, approximately 44% adjusted operating margin, and 7%-9% adjusted diluted EPS growth. The balanced recommendation reflects solid execution and cash generation against meaningful Paycor integration, technology, cybersecurity, regulatory, insurance-cost, and small-business macroeconomic risks. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$95.00 Mean target$111.00 High · most bullish analyst$150.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $95.0020% The bear case contemplates revenue growth below 5%, adjusted operating margin below 44%, payroll retention below 82%, or material disruption from Paycor integration, AI defects, cybersecurity incidents, insurance claims, regulation, or weaker small-business employment conditions. Base CaseCentral scenario $111.0055% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes fiscal 2027 performance within management's ranges: 5%-6% total-revenue growth, approximately 44% adjusted operating margin, and 7%-9% adjusted diluted EPS growth, with payroll retention remaining near its fiscal 2026 range. This is the modal scenario. Bull CaseUpside scenario $150.0025% The bull case requires revenue growth above the 6% upper end of fiscal 2027 guidance, adjusted operating margin above approximately 44%, continued worksite-employee expansion, retention at or above the fiscal 2026 range, and successful monetization of Paycor cross-selling and WISE capabilities. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |