Patterson-UTI Energy Inc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Drilling Beta (adjusted)0.77 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $11.30Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $4.3B Enterprise Value $5.3B Shares Outstanding 377.4M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN) is well-positioned to benefit from a cyclical inflection in U.S. land drilling and completion activity during the second half of 2026. Despite near-term margin pressures and a Q1 net loss, the company's strategic high-grading of its fleet toward Tier-1 super-spec rigs and 100% natural gas-powered completions equipment (Emerald Fleet) aligns with customer demand for operational efficiency and lower emissions. Backed by an upgraded Q2 EBITDA guidance of $220 million, rising leading-edge dayrates, and a disciplined capital allocation framework that returns at least 50% of free cash flow to shareholders, PTEN offers an attractive risk-reward profile at its current valuation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$8.00 Mean target$13.43 High · most bullish analyst$19.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $8.0020% A sharp decline in oil and gas prices causes E&P operators to further restrict budgets, stalling rig reactivations and leading to oversupply in pressure pumping equipment. Margin compression intensifies due to persistent cost inflation and international disruptions, forcing PTEN to scale back capital returns and delay fleet upgrades. Base CaseCentral scenario $13.4350% Matches the consensus meanPTEN successfully executes its plan to exit 2026 with over 100 active rigs, supported by a mid-single-digit increase in leading-edge dayrates. Completion Services pricing remains firm, and the company achieves its FY 2026 capital expenditure target of ~$600 million. Refinancing activities successfully push out debt maturities, maintaining a leverage ratio near 1.1x Net Debt-to-EBITDA. Bull CaseUpside scenario $19.0030% A rapid recovery in domestic E&P spending driven by sustained high commodity prices accelerates rig reactivations, pushing PTEN's active rig count well past 100 by year-end. Stronger-than-expected pricing power in Completion Services and rapid adoption of the high-margin Emerald natural gas fleets drive significant margin expansion, leading to substantial free cash flow generation and increased share buybacks. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |