Patrick Industries Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryRecreational Vehicles Beta (adjusted)1.07 Intrinsic Value $63.61median of 6 methods · middle span $57-$68based on filings through 28 Jun 2026 Market Price $66.56Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 4% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.1B Enterprise Value $3.5B Shares Outstanding 35.5M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend24 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Patrick Industries (PATK) is a leading component solutions provider for the Outdoor Enthusiast (RV, Marine, Powersports) and Housing markets. While the company has demonstrated strong operational resilience, robust cost management, and consistent content-per-unit gains, it continues to face persistent cyclical headwinds in its core RV and manufactured housing end markets. The stock appears slightly undervalued following a significant decline from its 52-week high, but macroeconomic risks, elevated interest rates, and soft wholesale industry shipments warrant a cautious near-term stance. A 'Hold' rating is maintained until clear signs of demand stabilization and economic improvement emerge. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$85.00 Mean target$106.70 High · most bullish analyst$130.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $83.9015% Persistent high interest rates and deteriorating consumer confidence lead to prolonged downturns in discretionary outdoor enthusiast markets, causing deeper volume declines, margin compression, and pressure on leverage metrics. Base CaseCentral scenario $106.7055% Matches the consensus meanPatrick Industries continues to navigate a dynamic and uneven demand environment. Content-per-unit gains and disciplined cost management preserve operating margins, while steady free cash flow supports ongoing dividend payments and opportunistic share repurchases. Bull CaseUpside scenario $120.2535% A rapid stabilization in the RV and housing markets, combined with accelerated adoption of high-value composite products and successful integration of recent powersports/marine acquisitions, drives significant margin expansion and organic revenue growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |