Patria Investments Ltd Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryAsset Management Beta (adjusted)0.84 Intrinsic Value $14.32median of 6 methods · middle span $11-$16based on filings through 31 Dec 2024 Market Price $10.14Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 41% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.6B Enterprise Value $1.9B Shares Outstanding 153.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Patria Investments (NASDAQ: PAX) is a leading alternative asset manager in Latin America that is successfully transitioning from a pure-play private equity firm into a diversified multi-vertical platform. Despite a slight EPS miss in Q1 2026 due to integration costs and seasonal factors, the underlying business exhibits strong operational momentum. Fee-Earning AUM grew 31% year-over-year to $45.8 billion, and Fee Related Earnings rose 19% to $50.5 million. The stock trades at an attractive valuation discount relative to its long-term growth potential, supported by a robust dividend yield of over 5.5% and clear visibility toward its 2026-2027 FRE targets. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$12.00 Mean target$15.57 High · most bullish analyst$20.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $12.00 Persistent macroeconomic headwinds, high interest rates, and political instability in Latin America delay fund realizations further, keeping PRE at the low end of the revised $80M-$100M range. Integration challenges and rising G&A expenses compress FRE margins, while fundraising slows down, limiting FEAUM growth. Base CaseCentral scenario $15.57 Matches the consensus meanPatria successfully delivers on its reaffirmed FY 2026 FRE guidance of $225 million to $245 million ($1.42 to $1.54 per share) and achieves its 2027 FEAUM target of $70 billion. FRE margins progressively expand to 58-60% as integration costs moderate. The dividend remains well-covered, and the stock undergoes a moderate re-rating as execution risks subside. Bull CaseUpside scenario $20.00 Accelerated integration of acquisitions (Solis, RBR, WP Global Partners) drives FRE margins toward the high end of the 58-60% target. Stronger-than-expected fundraising exceeds the $7.7 billion record, and a rapid recovery in Latin American capital markets triggers early realizations of Private Equity Fund VI, driving performance-related earnings above expectations. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |